At 9:00pm PST tonight, BDS and Golden Guardians will hit the rift to begin the first ever Worlds Qualifying Series (WQS). For those unaware, this is the first official match of Worlds 2023 where the 4th seed from EMEA, BDS, will take on the 4th seed from NA, Golden Guardians. They will play a best of 5 series for a spot in the Play-Ins stage at the 2023 World Championship. Naturally, being the 4th seeds from their respective regions, these teams are less well known than their higher-seeded counterparts. International fans may remember Golden Guardians' stint at MSI, but this is the first international appearance for Europe's BDS. With PickEm's live and the match fast approaching, many viewers are left wondering who they should predict will come out on top and the likelihood of their region's team reigning victorious. The following paragraphs will attempt to provide analytical background regarding these two teams and penultimately choose the more likely victor based on these conclusions.
The Golden Guardians
First, let's take a look at the Golden Guardians. Unlike BDS, we have actually seen GG on the international stage before, just at this past MSI. At a glance, their MSI seems unimpressive. They did start off with a bang taking down Vietnamese champs GAM in convincing 2-0 fashion before falling to BLG and qualifying for the group stage in the loser's bracket beating Latin American #1 seed Rainbow7. Defeating the Vietnamese and Latin American champs, internationally speaking, is an underwhelming achievement, and losing to China's 2nd seed BLG wasn't really a surprise. What was a surprise, however, was the way that series against BLG played out.
Game 1 of the series was a predictable BLG stomp, leading many viewers to believe the series would be a quick 2-0 and NA fans would go home disappointed once again. However, in Game 2 GG bounced back in a brutal 39 minute game resulting in a tremendous upset off the back of a huge performance by Licorice on K'sante. Finally, in Game 3, Gori got a solid lead in mid but BLG ultimately tore GG apart from the bot lane to secure themselves the series victory. In the end, the result of the series went as predicted, but it showed a glimmer of hope for NA and the west that the Golden Guardians could take a game off BLG. In theory, BLG, who would go on to make finals at that very MSI tournament, was one of the best teams in the world, and GG managed to snag a game and show signs of life in Game 3. Eventually, GG would go on to get swept by JDG, the eventual MSI champs, and then C9, their domestic superiors, to be knocked out of the tournament.
The next time we saw this Golden Guardians squad, unchanged going into the 2023 LCS Summer Split, they ended the regular season in 2nd place, matching their placement from spring. Things began to crumble during playoffs, however, where they got upset by 5th seed NRG 3-1 in Round 2. Despite this loss they looked solid against Dignitas in the loser's bracket, dominating them in convincing 3-0 fashion. Unfortunately for GG, they would be stopped in their tracks by Team Liquid after a nail-biting 5 game series and a disappointing Game 5 Tristana performance by Gori. Though TL was lower seeded than GG going into playoffs, to many the outcome was not surprising, as the immense talent on TL's roster is undeniable, sporting world champions Pyosik and CoreJJ and domestic demon Summit. For GG, though, this was certainly an underwhelming outcome, and it sentenced them to qualifying to the World Championship through the WQS. Regardless of this setback, many NA fans hold out hope that GG has a higher peak than they showed in summer playoffs, thinking back to how they nearly beat BLG at MSI.
Team BDS
Now, when it comes to BDS, we've seen much less of them in comparison to GG. The WQS will be their first international appearance as an organization, so we can only judge them based off their domestic performance. To many, BDS have been a pleasant surprise in 2023. Their 2022 performance as lackluster to say the least, ending 9th and 10th in spring and summer. Going into the new year, many fans questioned their roster decisions as they promoted Adam, Crownie, and Sheo from their academy roster, and signed Labrov from Vitality. While these moves were certainly seen as improvements over their 2022 roster, they also didn't seem likely to dramatically change the organization's trajectory.
This sentiment would soon be challenged as BDS hit the rift in the 2023 LEC Winter Split. They ended the first round robin 5-4: by no means a world-altering score line, but it showed significant improvement from their 2022 season. Playoffs would go uneventful as they would lose to G2, the eventual winter champs, and a surging Astralis. Things really took a turn for the better in the Spring Split. They ended the regular season in 1st place with an impressive 7-2 score line, and topped their group heading into playoffs. There, they handily defeated a star-studded Vitality roster that had not yet totally collapsed to qualify for the grand finals. Sadly for BDS they would fall to MAD Lions after a close 5 game series to finish at 2nd place, but they had successfully changed their public perception from a bottom-feeder team to a Worlds contender.
Going into summer BDS struggled, ending the first round robin with only a 4-5 score line. In the group stage they did win a close best of 3 series against Heretics before being swiftly dispatched by G2 and losing the rematch against Heretics to be eliminated from playoffs. It wasn't all doom and gloom for BDS though, as their spring performance had earned them enough championship points to qualify for the Season Finals, which would determine Worlds qualification. They lost to G2 again in the first round of the Season Finals, pushing them into the loser's bracket. Fortunately for them, they dodged Fnatic and Excel who both were looking stronger in summer, and matched against a declining SK Gaming. They demolished SK 3-0, which earned them at least a 4th place finish and a spot at the World's Qualifying Series. Though there was hope of qualifying directly to Worlds, they lost a close 5 game series against Fnatic resulting in the aforementioned 4th place finish and seeding them into the WQS.
Who Will Win?
It's difficult to compare the strength of these 2 teams with the information available. They've both experienced quite a difficult summer after a head-turning spring split. Both teams will certainly come into the WQS with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove after failing to meet expectations in summer. They also have shown similar styles throughout the year; their strengths lie in exquisite teamfighting and map movements, though BDS is more top-focused and GG is more bot-focused. So, if these two teams are so evenly matched, which one is going to come out on top?
When it comes to experience, GG definitely has the upper hand. Their time at this year's MSI will prove invaluable while preparing for the WQS. Additionally, their players are overall more experienced. Long time fans will remember Stixxay and Huhi's deep MSI run in 2016, and Huhi's successive Worlds qualifications with 100 Thieves. River sports an impressive resume from his time in the PCS on PSG Talon, dominating the region in 2020 and 2021. Gori put up respectable performances in the LCK, LPL, and PCS before making his way to NA. And who could forget Licorice's deep 2018 Worlds run? These Golden Guardians have certainly seen their fair share of ups and downs throughout their career, but it's impossible to ignore their wealth of experience. For BDS, on the other hand, the only player that's seen international play is Adam, who went to Worlds with Fnatic in 2021 and made a swift exit after going 1-5 in the group stage. Though Nuc, Crownie, and Labrov have had solid domestic careers, we have yet to see them compete on the international stage. Sheo has had an impressive rookie year, but of course has not yet seen international play either.
So it's clear GG as a team has more experience, but what about hands diff? When it comes to mechanical prowess, these teams are rather evenly matched. The carries on both teams have all shown the ability to step up when it counts, though there is a level of inconsistency to this ability. The biggest threat BDS has of taking the series from GG is Adam. All year long Adam has been BDS's x-factor. The team leveled up across the board but when BDS was swinging above their weight it was off the back of impressive carry performances by Adam. He's garnered a reputation amongst European fans for being an aggressive player with the possibility of dominating his lane and steamrolling a game no matter who he's up against. When he's on his comfort picks like Olaf and Darius he's shown time and again that he can completely take over the game. The Golden Guardians will have to prepare a strategy to shut him down if they want to emerge victorious, and if they can't, it's going to be an up-hill battle. Their own top laner, Licorice, was seen as the weak point of the team before spring playoffs, but cleaned his play up significantly since then and looks like one of their most consistent players. If he can nullify Adam's aggression, GG should be in an advantageous position for the series.
If you're looking to make a safe bet, then you're better off not betting on this series. Both teams have shown incredibly high potential and painfully disappointing inconsistencies. If you value experience, you may think GG has the upper hand. If you're more fond of spicy aggressive gameplay, you wouldn't be wrong for believing in Adam's ability to turn the tides for his team. A big argument against BDS is that many feel they are not Europe's 4th best team; Heretics outperformed them in summer but lacked the championship points to qualify for the Season Finals, and as mentioned before, BDS only beat 6th seed SK Gaming to qualify for the WQS. If the bracket had shaken out differently, Heretics or Excel could have been in their position instead of BDS. GG, on the other hand, looked firmly better than the bottom 6 in NA and just barely worse than the top 3. Because of this, I would give the edge to Golden Guardians. At the end of the day, either of these teams can take it, and it will depend on who comes up clutch.
All photo credits to LoL Esports.
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